Last week had the most Elevation Change games in a single week so far with 11, and thankfully The Boys were able to take the win over The Bot, 6-5.
It’s not the results we were seeing earlier in the season, but it’s a step in the right direction after faltering these past few weeks.
As we head into Week 10, ten games are on the docket, along with an opportunity for The Boys to get back in shape.
This week features three split picks with The Bot, the most we’ve had so far this season. The results of those games will go a long way in determining who will be the 2026 Boys vs. Bot champion.
Let’s see what’s on the table this week.
On bye: North Dakota State, San Diego State
Toledo vs. Sacramento State
Toledo 6-2 (3-1), Sacramento State 2-7 (1-5)
The Sacramento State Hornets just got their first conference win last week against Kent State, but unfortunately they’re running into the offensive powerhouse that is the Toledo Rockets.
Toledo stands at 6-2 and 3-1 in MAC-tion. The Rockets have won six of their last seven games and are coming off their bye week.
Rockets quarterback John Alan Richter is 10th in the country in passing with 2,244 yards and is coming off one of his best games of the season in the Rockets’ win against Western Michigan, with a career-high 391 passing yards and three touchdowns. The fourth-year junior is a starter for the first time this season and is showcasing why he’s one of the top talents in the MAC.
Sacramento State earned its first conference and FBS win, and it was shaped by the performance of freshman running back Isaih Ene, whose career-high 107 rushing yards and two touchdowns helped propel the Hornets to victory. Ene had yet to rush for more than 60 yards in a game this year, but broke out in a big way against the Golden Flashes. If this rise continues, expect the Hornets to be more competitive against the Rockets.
The Bot favors Toledo by nearly four scores, and we’re in agreement with it. After the Hornets’ win last week, we think they will be able to cover the humongous spread this week, but not be able to get their second straight win.
Bot spread Toledo −25.6Bot O/U 56.3
New Mexico vs. Nevada
New Mexico 7-1 (4-0), Nevada 3-5 (2-2)
The AP No. 22 New Mexico Lobos are ranked for the first time in program history when they travel to Reno to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack.
New Mexico didn’t make the initial CFP rankings that came out on Tuesday, but the Lobos have showcased why they are one of the top threats in the G6 this season, winning five in a row since a close 14-6 loss at then-No. 24 Oklahoma.
The Lobos have had a very productive offense on the ground, with four players over 100 rushing yards on the season. Scottree Humphrey leads the way with 540 yards and 11 touchdowns. The 11 touchdowns are tied for ninth in the country.
New Mexico’s defense has also been one of the best in the country, tied for first in points allowed per game, with two players, Darren Agu and Brett Karhum, tied for seventh among G6 players with six sacks each. The secondary has also been lights out, with Tavian Combs and Austin Brawly tied for second in the nation with four interceptions apiece.
Nevada is coming off a shutout loss against CFP No. 7 UCLA, but showed a lot of improvement, especially on the defensive end. The Wolf Pack defense held the Bruins to just 303 total yards, their lowest output in a game this year. It continues a trend for the defense, which held San José State to just 204 yards in a win the week prior.
The Wolf Pack have had to deal with a multitude of injuries at quarterback, but between Cardale Jones, AJ Bianco and Luke Duncan, they’ve been able to scratch their way to a .500 conference record. New Mexico will be the toughest test this quarterback room has faced yet, so their play, alongside running backs Dominic Kelley and Herschel Turner, both with 500-plus yards on the ground, will be critical to securing the upset.
The Bot likes New Mexico on the road by around two scores, and we think that will be the case too. Nevada should be able to put some points on the board, but the Lobos’ rushing attack will prove too much for the Wolf Pack defense.
Bot spread New Mexico −8.5Bot O/U 47.1
Northern Illinois vs. San José State
Northern Illinois 0-8 (0-4), San José State 4-5 (2-3)
The Northern Illinois Huskies, in their first season in the Mountain West, are the only remaining winless team at the FBS level, but they came very close to that sorely needed first win in a 31-24 loss to UNLV last week.
The Huskies embark on their longest road trip of the season when they travel to take on the San José State Spartans. Quarterback Taron Dickens, running back Elijah Porter and receiver George Dimopoulos all had season-best performances against UNLV, and the Huskies will need them to stay hot if they want to secure the upset.
San José State played a close game with Mountain West leader New Mexico, losing just 21-16. Running back Jabari Bates had his second straight down week, putting up only 63 yards on 22 carries without a touchdown. Bates has 649 yards on the season, just eight yards behind UNLV running back Jai’Den Thomas for tops among Mountain West running backs, and the opportunity for a big game against Northern Illinois is tantalizing. Thomas put up 114 yards and a touchdown against the Huskies, and Bates has the chance to match that this week.
The Spartans are on a two-game losing streak, dropping close games against New Mexico and Nevada after a 2-1 start to conference play. The Huskies are the easiest challenge the Spartans have faced since early September, when they took on FCS Cal Poly.
The Bot likes the Spartans by only 10.1 points. With the Huskies traveling nearly 2,000 miles, and Northern Illinois yet to prove it can beat anyone this year, we think San José State wins by more than The Bot’s line.
Bot spread San José State −10.1Bot O/U 49.6
Boise State vs. Colorado State
Boise State 7-1 (4-0), Colorado State 3-5 (1-3)
Boise State was the only G6 team to earn a spot in the committee’s initial CFP rankings, sitting at 25th overall and the No. 12 seed in the initial CFP bracket. It’s been an impressive season for the Broncos, who are a late Oregon touchdown away from being undefeated.
The Broncos are coming off a scary 46-45 win against Texas State that saw them blow a 25-point halftime lead, including a stretch where the Bobcats scored 36 points in just 21 minutes of game time. The Broncos recovered thanks to the heroics of backup quarterback Max Cutforth, who orchestrated three straight touchdown drives after Maddux Madsen went down with an injury.
Madsen is considered day-to-day, so if he’s healthy enough to start on Saturday, there’s a good chance we’ll see him go up against the Rams.
Colorado State got quarterback Hauss Hejny back from injury two weeks ago, and for the first time in Hejny’s tenure in Fort Collins, the Rams failed to score more than 35 points. The Rams, who sport the nation’s worst defense and one of its best offenses, couldn’t get anything going against a struggling Utah State team in a 31-14 loss last weekend. It was a forgettable game, with two late touchdowns the only saving grace.
With the loss, Colorado State sits at 3-5 overall and 1-3 in its first year in the Pac-12. After a promising 2-0 start, it’s been all downhill, with a 1-5 record since mid-September.
Boise State is the only undefeated team left in Pac-12 play and remains the conference favorite after Oregon State suffered its first conference loss last week. The Broncos have 62% odds to reach the CFP according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, the best among all G6 schools.
The Bot favors Boise State by a considerable margin, and we agree. Colorado State has a great offense when all the cogs are working, but something went awry last week against Utah State, and we don’t see them fixing it in time to avoid a blowout.
Bot spread Boise State −17.8Bot O/U 70.8
Air Force vs. Army
Air Force 6-2 (3-2), Army 5-3 (4-2)
This week’s Elevation Change Game of the Week features one of college football’s most unique rivalries as Air Force travels to take on Army. With both teams bringing their trademark ground-heavy offenses and plenty of pride into this matchup, this one has all the makings of a close, physical battle. Air Force comes in riding some momentum after beating UConn 35-26 last weekend. The Falcons have quietly put together a solid season, especially on the ground, averaging around 341 rushing yards per game. Quarterback Evan Medders has been a big part of that success, leading the team with 490 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Air Force also has a defense that has been better than people might expect, allowing just 21.5 points per game. The biggest challenge this weekend will be dealing with an Army team that plays a very similar style of football. The Falcons have lost three straight games against the Black Knights, including last year’s 20-17 loss, so there is definitely some history to overcome.
Army has been just as dangerous running the football, averaging over 340 yards per game on the ground. Quarterback Cale Hellums leads the offense with 874 rushing yards and has become the engine of this team. However, Army is coming off a rough 49-22 loss to Memphis, and its defense has struggled at times this season, allowing 25.5 points per game. This matchup should be a classic battle of two teams trying to control the clock and win the physical battle up front. Home-field advantage gives Army a slight edge, but Air Force has the defensive ability to keep this one close. The group predictions are split, but Air Force gets the slight edge in the averaged score.
Bot spread Army −6.4Bot O/U 52.5
Liberty vs. New Mexico State
Liberty 7-1 (4-0), New Mexico State 3-5 (2-2)
Liberty has been one of the more impressive teams in Conference USA this season, coming into the weekend with a 7-1 record and a defense that has been dominant. The Flames are allowing just 13.5 points per game, among the best in the country. Offensively, Liberty has put together a balanced attack, averaging nearly 34 points per game. Their ability to control the game on both sides of the ball has made them a tough matchup for just about anybody in the conference, and they should have a significant advantage heading into Saturday. Liberty has been particularly effective at limiting opposing offenses, which could make things difficult for a New Mexico State team that has struggled to find consistency.
New Mexico State has had a much tougher season, sitting at 3-5 after being shut out 24-0 by Jacksonville State last week. The Aggies have struggled offensively, averaging just 21.5 points per game, and will need a much better performance if they want to compete with Liberty. The Aggies do have the benefit of playing at home, but I don’t think that will be enough to overcome the difference between these two teams. Liberty has too much defensive talent and should be able to control the game from the opening kickoff. All three of our pickers have Liberty winning, and the averaged prediction reflects a comfortable victory for the Flames.
Bot spread Liberty −15.4Bot O/U 51.3
Fresno State vs. Utah State
Fresno State 5-3 (2-2), Utah State 3-5 (2-2)
Fresno State is coming off a huge win over Oregon State, and the Bulldogs will look to carry that momentum into their matchup against Utah State. One of the biggest reasons for their offensive success has been the receiver duo of Josiah Freeman and Ezekiel Avit. Both have four receiving touchdowns this season, and together they’ve combined for over 900 receiving yards. If these two keep making big plays, Utah State’s secondary could be in for a long night.
For Utah State, keep an eye on running back Javen Jacobs. This could be the game where he really breaks out and gives the Aggies a much-needed spark on offense. However, Fresno State is playing with confidence after its big win over the Beavers, and I don’t see the Bulldogs slowing down just yet.
Bot spread Fresno State −0.9Bot O/U 44.1
Hawai‘i vs. UTEP
Hawai‘i 2-6 (1-4), UTEP 1-7 (0-4)
Hawai‘i hits the road to take on UTEP in what I expect to be a competitive matchup. For the Rainbow Warriors, linebacker Wynden Ho’ohuli is someone to keep your eyes on. He’s been a disruptive presence on defense, and the big question is whether he can keep causing havoc and forcing fumbles. If Hawai‘i can create turnovers and give its offense some extra possessions, that could be the difference.
On the other side, UTEP kicker Carlos Arreola has something to prove. He’s made just three of his eight field goal attempts this season, and in a game that could come down to a single possession, every point matters. The Miners will need him to step up if they’re going to pull off the win. I expect UTEP to keep things close, but I trust Hawai‘i to make a few more plays when it matters most.
Bot spread Hawai‘i −7.8Bot O/U 51.4
Texas State vs. Oregon State
Texas State 4-4 (2-2), Oregon State 5-3 (3-1)
Texas State is coming off one of the wildest games of the season, narrowly losing 46-45 to Boise State last weekend. Despite the loss, the Bobcats showed just how dangerous their offense can be. Quarterback Brad Jackson threw for 327 yards and four touchdowns while adding a rushing touchdown. Running back Torrance Burgess Jr. has been another important piece, providing a major threat on the ground. Texas State has shown it can score with just about anybody, but the problem has been on the other side of the ball. The Bobcats have struggled to consistently get stops, and their defense could have a difficult time against an Oregon State offense that can put up points in a hurry.
Oregon State has put together an impressive offensive season of its own, averaging over 500 yards and 40 points per game. Quarterback Braden Atkinson has been especially effective, throwing for nearly 3,000 yards with 25 touchdowns and just two interceptions. His favorite target, Jesse Legree, has already surpassed 1,100 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. The Beavers are coming off a 38-22 loss to Fresno State, so they will be looking to bounce back at home. This should be a really entertaining matchup, because both teams have offenses capable of scoring on almost every possession. Texas State has enough firepower to make things interesting, but I think Oregon State’s passing game will be the difference. Our group predictions all favor Oregon State, although the projected margin is relatively small compared to the spread. I’m expecting plenty of points, but the Beavers should be able to pull away late.
Bot spread Oregon State −6.4Bot O/U 65.9
Wyoming vs. UNLV
Wyoming 5-3 (4-1), UNLV 5-3 (4-2)
Wyoming travels to Las Vegas for an intriguing matchup against UNLV, and all eyes will be on Cowboys quarterback Tyler Hughes. Hughes has been a true dual-threat weapon this season, throwing for over 1,100 yards while adding more than 600 on the ground. However, his seven interceptions have been a concern. If Wyoming wants to leave Vegas with a victory, Hughes will need to take care of the football while continuing to make plays with both his arm and his legs.
For UNLV, quarterback Jackson Arnold will be the player to watch. Much like Hughes, Arnold can hurt defenses through the air and on the ground. The question is whether he can put together a complete performance and keep the Wyoming defense guessing. I think both quarterbacks will have their moments, but turnovers could ultimately decide this one. I’m giving UNLV the edge at home in a close battle.
Bot spread UNLV −5.2Bot O/U 45.4