Welcome back to the second edition of The Boys vs. The Bot, and The Boys came out on top in Week 5 of the college football season.
The Boys correctly predicted Air Force and UNLV to win after The Bot picked their opponents, but The Bot correctly predicted lower-scoring games from Utah State, Wyoming, and the San Diego State-Texas State matchup, preventing a clean sweep.
This week, The Bot has developed its own betting line and over/under rather than utilizing DraftKings’ odds. These are not strict betting odds, but rather the lines that The Bot has calculated based on the information it’s fed.
Going into Week 6, The Boys take a 7-3 lead over The Bot. Let’s see who comes out victorious this week.
New Mexico State vs. Florida International
New Mexico State 2-3 (1-0), Florida International 2-2 (0-0)
New Mexico State comes into its first Conference USA road game against Florida International. The Aggies, coming off a win against Western Kentucky in their CUSA opener, are looking to solidify an offense that’s had an up-and-down season. Backup quarterback turned starter Adam Damante started the Western Kentucky game and cemented himself as the starter moving forward after helping the Aggies secure their first win against an FBS team this season. The Aggies will ride on Damante and running back James Jones, who had 155 yards and a touchdown against the Hilltoppers, in an effort to secure a victory in Miami.
Florida International is sporting one of the nation’s best defenses through the first month of the college football season. The 9th-best defense in the country, based on yards per game allowed, will have to make up for its paltry offense, which only averages 18 points a game. The Panthers’ defense is led by the dangerous defensive line trio of Deejay Holmes Jr., Elisha Baldridge, and Kenton Simmons, who have a combined 10 sacks, two passes defended, and two forced fumbles. The Panthers’ offense is led by 6′7″ quarterback JJ Kohl, who’s been able to pass a decent amount with 1,065 yards so far this season, but hasn’t yet been able to turn that production into points.
It should be a tight game at Pitbull Stadium (yes, the stadium is named after the musical artist Pitbull), but give us the upset pick in New Mexico State. Behind its strong running game and stabilization at quarterback, the Aggies should be able to squeeze past the Panthers to reach 2-0 in conference play.
Bot spread Florida International −0.9Bot O/U 45.1
Washington State vs. Utah State
Washington State 1-4 (0-1), Utah State 1-4 (0-1)
Washington State and Utah State are two programs looking for stability under relatively new head coaches. Both programs come into the matchup 1-4 and 0-1 in conference play. A win for either team would be a huge boost for the rest of their seasons.
Washington State has seen constant turnover and is now on its third head coach in three seasons. First-year head coach Kirby Moore is doing what he can to keep the struggling Cougars afloat. Quarterback Chad Pinnick, a UC Davis transfer with three passing and three rushing touchdowns, and safety Jaylen Thomas, who has two interceptions and a pick-six on the season, have been bright spots in a fairly dim year in Pullman. They’ll look to pull off the upset in their first trip to Logan as Pac-12 rivals.
Utah State has looked better every week in Bronco Mendenhall’s second season. The Aggies have found stability at quarterback with Grady Brosterhous taking the reins after starter McCae Hillstead was injured in the Aggies’ season-opening loss to FCS Idaho State. The Virginia transfer has brought a gunslinger mentality to Logan, with six touchdowns and six interceptions through five games this year. Brosterhous is also second on the team in rushing yards with 232.
The Cougars and Aggies are both in desperate need of a win, but alas, only one team can be victorious on Friday night. We’re giving a small edge to the hometown Aggies in what will be a slow and sloppy game.
Bot spread Utah State −2.4Bot O/U 44.6
Wyoming vs. San José State
Wyoming 2-3 (1-1), San José State 3-2 (1-0)
Wyoming has had some struggles moving the ball consistently this season, and a big part of its challenge in this game will be finding a way to keep the offense on the field. One area to watch is the tight end duo of Jake Wilson and Kyle Frendt. If Wyoming wants to have success offensively, the offense needs to find a way to get these two more involved and use them to create some easier opportunities in the passing game. Establishing that part of the offense could also help take some pressure off the running game.
San José State quarterback Luke Weaver has played pretty well for most of the season, with his game against Fresno State two weeks ago being the major exception. Weaver threw four interceptions and was sacked five times in that game, but Wyoming doesn’t appear to have the same kind of defensive pressure to cause those problems again. If Weaver has time to throw, he should be able to make plays through the air and open things up for running back Jabari Bates. With Wyoming having to respect the passing game, Bates could have more room to work with on the ground.
San José State should control this game pretty comfortably. Wyoming has yet to win a game on the road this season, and that streak should stay intact. Weaver should have enough time to make plays through the air, opening up the run game for Bates and allowing the Spartans to control the game from start to finish.
Bot spread San José State −5.3Bot O/U 41.0
Sacramento State vs. Bowling Green
Sacramento State 1-4 (0-2), Bowling Green 1-4 (1-0)
One of Sacramento State’s biggest questions offensively is the running back room. Four different backs have each gotten 28–30 carries this season, but not a single one of them has really separated himself from the rest. At some point, someone will need to emerge and take control of the backfield. Splitting the carries this evenly makes it tough for anyone to really get into a rhythm, so seeing one of these backs finally break out would be a big boost for the Hornets’ offense.
Bowling Green hasn’t exactly been impressive either, but wide receiver Winn Sharp has been a consistent piece of the offense and will need to continue making plays for the Falcons. With neither team giving much reason to be confident, this could come down to which offense can simply make a few more plays when it matters.
Bowling Green should be able to take control of this one without too much trouble. Sacramento State may be able to put together a few drives, but the Falcons should have the more reliable offense and enough defensive stops to create some separation. It won’t be pretty, but Bowling Green should take care of business at home.
Bot spread Bowling Green −6.7Bot O/U 45.5
San Diego State vs. Oregon State
San Diego State 2-3 (1-0), Oregon State 3-2 (1-0)
This Beavers offense just doesn’t disappoint. Braden Atkinson leads the nation in passing yards, while Jesse Legree is second in the nation in receiving yards behind Ohio State’s Heisman favorite Jeremiah Smith. And even when those two are getting all the attention, Oregon State keeps finding other ways to make plays. Tight end Eric Olsen had a stellar performance against Colorado State, catching nine passes for 65 yards and two touchdowns. He was also the most targeted player on the team, showing just how many different weapons this offense has.
San Diego State comes into this one with some momentum after a close win over Texas State. The Aztecs will need that momentum to carry over to the defensive side of the ball, because slowing down Oregon State is a completely different challenge. Linebacker Sione Hala could be one of the players SDSU relies on to try to slow down the Beavers and keep this game from getting out of hand.
San Diego State will do all it can to keep it close, but Oregon State is playing at a completely different level right now. The Aztecs can put together some good drives, but keeping up with this Beavers offense for an entire game is a lot to ask. Oregon State’s offense will eventually create too much separation, and the Beavers come away with a convincing 38-13 win.
Bot spread Oregon State −13.9Bot O/U 49.3
North Dakota State vs. UNLV
North Dakota State 5-0 (2-0), UNLV 3-2 (1-0)
In the Elevation Change Game of the Week, the red-hot North Dakota State will face its toughest test yet when it travels to Las Vegas to take on a UNLV team coming off its best win of the season, a thrilling 39-31 victory over Cal. The Bison have excelled in their first season at the FBS level, with a perfect record through five games and four players already over 100 rushing yards. DJ Scott leads the charge for North Dakota State with 298 yards, but backups Myles Mitchell and Neyoti Punni have made the most of their limited reps with 214 and 129 yards, respectively. The Bison have also been a terror to face on defense, with six players already recording an interception and eight players having recorded at least 0.5 sacks this season.
The Bison will pose a significant test for the Rebels. UNLV is led by Oklahoma and Auburn transfer Jackson Arnold at quarterback and four-year starter running back Jai’Den Thomas, who’s coming off his first 1,000-yard season. Arnold played his best game of the season against Cal, throwing for three touchdowns while also running for two more scores. On the defensive side of the ball, Tre Fulton has been a do-it-all defensive back who leads the team in sacks with 3.5 and is second on the team in interceptions and forced fumbles with one each. The talented sophomore has led a solid defense that has really only had one bad game, a 44-6 loss at North Texas in Week 3.
Both of these teams have performed well so far this season. This will be a close game, but we’re going to pick the Bison in what should be a very fun matchup.
Bot spread North Dakota State −4.9Bot O/U 48.4
Nevada vs. UTEP
Nevada 1-3 (0-1), UTEP 1-4 (0-1)
Nevada comes into El Paso after a bye week following a heartbreaking 36-33 double-overtime loss to Air Force. The Wolf Pack showed plenty of fight in that game, especially from linebacker EJ Smith, who recorded 21 tackles and now leads the nation with 55 tackles on the season. Running back Herschel Turner also had his breakout performance, rushing for 111 yards and two touchdowns, including a 57-yard score that tied the game late in the fourth quarter. If Nevada can get that same production from Turner while Smith continues to dominate the middle of the defense, the Wolf Pack should have a good chance to control this game.
UTEP has had a rough start to the season and is coming off a 61-7 loss to New Mexico. The Miners have struggled to find consistency on offense, which is a major concern against a Nevada defense that has been led by Smith all season. UTEP will need quarterback EJ Colson Jr., a transfer from Incarnate Word, to give the offense some life and avoid putting the defense in bad situations. Nevada should be able to take advantage of the Miners’ struggles and turn this into a comfortable win.
Bot spread Nevada −8.2Bot O/U 52.4
Air Force vs. Northern Illinois
Air Force 3-1 (1-1), Northern Illinois 0-4 (0-0)
Air Force is coming off an emotional win over Navy, but the Falcons will have to make a major adjustment this week after losing quarterback Liam Szarka for the season. Szarka had been one of the Mountain West’s best rushing threats, leading the conference with 98 rushing yards per game and seven rushing touchdowns. Now, sophomore Evan Medders is expected to take over at quarterback after already rushing for 109 yards and a touchdown this season. Air Force will need its defense to carry more of the load while Medders gets comfortable, and the Falcons should have a good opportunity against an NIU offense that averages only 79.3 rushing yards per game.
Northern Illinois is entering its first Mountain West game at 0-4, but the Huskies do have one of the conference’s most accurate quarterbacks in Taron Dickens. Dickens is completing 70% of his passes, which leads the Mountain West, and he has thrown for 837 yards through four games. The problem is that NIU has not been able to balance that passing attack with a strong rushing game, which could make things difficult against Air Force. The Falcons should be able to control the clock, force NIU into obvious passing situations and eventually pull away.
Bot spread Air Force −4.3Bot O/U 49.5
Boise State vs. Fresno State
Boise State 4-1 (1-0), Fresno State 4-1 (1-0)
Boise State and Fresno State have had almost identical starts to their seasons. Both opened the year with road losses to Big Ten teams, but both have responded by winning convincingly ever since. Boise State has especially found its groove on offense, with quarterback Maddux Madsen totaling 11 passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown without throwing an interception. The Broncos have been able to move the ball in just about every way, making this one of the tougher offenses Fresno State has faced.
Fresno State has looked great on both sides of the ball since that season-opening shutout loss to USC. The Bulldogs have been playing with a lot more confidence, and linebacker Kvion Thunderbird has been a leader on the defense and currently leads the team in tackles. And honestly, it’s not exactly a surprise that a guy named Kvion Thunderbird is flying all over the field making tackles. He’ll have a big role in trying to slow down Boise State’s offense.
Playing at home gives Fresno State a real advantage, and this one could come down to the final few possessions. Boise State has enough offensively to find a few more plays than the Bulldogs, though, and that gives the Broncos the edge.
Bot spread Boise State −7.3Bot O/U 50.1
Hawai‘i vs. Arizona State
Hawai‘i 1-4 (0-3), Arizona State 2-2 (1-1)
Hawai‘i has struggled to find its footing this season, sitting at 1-4 after a 20-16 loss to San José State. The Rainbow Warriors still have one of the conference’s most talented quarterbacks in Micah Alejado, who leads Hawai‘i with 1,360 passing yards this season. DeVon Rice has also been a bright spot in the running game with 276 rushing yards and three touchdowns. The problem has been turning those yards into points, as Hawai‘i is averaging just 17.6 points per game. Against an Arizona State team that is averaging 33.3 points per game, Hawai‘i is going to need its offense to play its best game of the season.
Arizona State has had an up-and-down season of its own, but the Sun Devils have the offensive firepower to make this matchup difficult for Hawai‘i. Cutter Boley has thrown for 1,040 yards and 10 touchdowns, while wide receiver Reed Harris leads the team with 499 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Arizona State is coming off a 55-19 loss to Baylor, so I expect the Sun Devils to come out looking to make a statement. Hawai‘i should be able to move the ball at times, but Arizona State’s passing attack should eventually create too many problems for the Rainbow Warriors.
Bot spread Arizona State −24.0Bot O/U 54.8
The Bot’s picks, spreads and over/unders come from the Elevation Change prediction model, which rates every team from game data and never reads betting lines. They are not sportsbook odds, and none of this is betting advice.