Week 6 has come and gone, and The Bot was able to gain some ground on The Boys last week.
After The Boys won seven of the ten games in Week 5, their number dropped to six as The Bot picked up a game on The Boys, bringing the current score to 13-7.
With bye weeks becoming more prevalent, Week 7 is the first week with only nine games on the docket, meaning one less game and more room for error in the long run.
Let’s see what Week 7 has in store and if The Boys will be able to reclaim their strong lead over The Bot.
Colorado State vs. Texas State
Colorado State 2-3 (0-1), Texas State 2-3 (0-1)
Texas State welcomes Colorado State in a matchup that could feature plenty of offense. The Rams’ defense has struggled to keep opponents off the scoreboard this season, making linebacker duo Oumar Diomande and Jaseim Mitchell crucial to slowing down the Bobcats. Colorado State will need a strong performance from both players to limit Texas State’s explosive offense and keep the game within reach.
For Texas State, running back Torrance Burgess Jr. is the player to watch. Burgess has rushed for 614 yards this season while averaging an impressive 7.3 yards per carry. If Colorado State struggles to contain him, the Bobcats could have plenty of opportunities to control the game on the ground and open up their offense.
Colorado State will need its defense to step up, but Texas State’s ability to generate explosive plays gives the Bobcats the edge. Expect Burgess to play a major role as Texas State pulls away for a home victory.
Bot spread Texas State −11.6Bot O/U 69.8
UNLV vs. Air Force
UNLV 4-2 (2-0), Air Force 4-1 (2-1)
UNLV’s matchup with Air Force pits two Mountain West contenders against each other in the Elevation Change Game of the Week. The Rebels are currently at the top of the Mountain West standings, while the Falcons are tied for third, albeit with one more conference game played.
UNLV is coming off a home upset win against North Dakota State, the Bison’s first loss this season. The Rebels secured the victory with a strong defensive showing that saw the defense score its only touchdown of the day on a pick-six in the first quarter.
Oklahoma and Auburn transfer Jackson Arnold was limited to just 77 yards through the air, but he continued showcasing his dual-threat ability by rushing for 60 yards against a stingy Bison rush defense.
Rebel running back Jai’Den Thomas also continued his strong season, rushing for 112 yards, putting him at 495 for the season.
The Falcons welcomed Northern Illinois to the Mountain West in typical Air Force fashion by winning 28-7 with zero passing yards.
Air Force and the service school’s trademark triple-option offense gashed the Huskies’ defense for 439 yards and four touchdowns, with running backs Evan Medders and Owen Allen combining for 214 of those yards and all the touchdowns.
Air Force is currently second in the country in rushing yards per game, behind only fellow service school Army. UNLV sits in the upper half of FBS schools, giving up an average of 141.3 yards on the ground.
This is going to be a tight and grounded game. Both teams excel at the run without having to rely on too much passing, but this is our only split pick of the week, with the Rebels coming in and stealing one on the road against the Falcons.
Bot spread Air Force −3.1Bot O/U 49.3
Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming
Northern Illinois 0-5 (0-1), Wyoming 3-3 (2-1)
Wyoming is returning home to Laramie to take on Northern Illinois in a game that could come down to which team makes fewer mistakes. The Cowboys have a solid one-two punch in the backfield with Samuel Harris and Markell Holman, who have combined for 648 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Quarterback Tyler Hughes adds another dimension with his legs, putting up 276 rushing yards and a touchdown of his own. The biggest concern for Wyoming is Hughes’ seven interceptions, which the Cowboys can’t afford if they want to control this game. Defensively, Esaia Bogar has recorded four sacks, and getting pressure on the Huskies’ quarterback will be important if Wyoming wants to keep Northern Illinois from getting its offense going.
Northern Illinois has some playmakers of its own, led by quarterback Taron Dickens, who has thrown for 977 yards, and running back Telly Johnson Jr., who has recorded 300 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Wide receiver DeAree Rogers has added 333 receiving yards and two touchdowns, giving the Huskies a reliable target in the passing game. However, we think Wyoming’s home-field advantage in Laramie and its ability to run the football will be enough to make the difference. Neither offense has a clear path to running away with this game, so we expect a close, physical matchup where every possession matters. If Wyoming can protect the football and keep the Huskies from making big plays, the Cowboys should be able to get the job done at home.
Bot spread Wyoming −5.9Bot O/U 40.9
Washington State vs. Oregon State
Washington State 1-5 (0-2), Oregon State 4-2 (2-0)
Oregon State has been putting together an impressive offensive season, and Washington State has a tough matchup ahead of it in Corvallis. Quarterback Braden Atkinson has thrown for 2,257 yards and 21 touchdowns with just two interceptions, completing 70.6% of his passes. His connection with freshman receiver Jesse Legree has been one of the biggest reasons for the Beavers’ success, as Legree has already put up 932 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns on 38 catches. Running back AJ Newberry has added 326 rushing yards and three touchdowns, giving Oregon State another option to keep defenses from focusing entirely on the passing game. With Atkinson playing this well, the Beavers have the potential to put up points against just about anyone.
Washington State needs to find a way to slow down that offense if it wants to stay competitive. Quarterback Caden Pinnick has thrown for 952 yards, three touchdowns, and five interceptions, while running back Kirby Vorhees has contributed 251 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Receivers Darrius Clemons and Benny Ganashamoorthy have combined for 414 receiving yards, but the Cougars will need more production from their passing game to keep up with Oregon State. We think the Beavers have too much firepower on offense, especially with Atkinson and Legree playing at such a high level. Washington State might be able to find the end zone, but keeping pace for four quarters is going to be a much bigger challenge. Expect Oregon State to take control early and keep its foot on the gas.
Bot spread Oregon State −16.9Bot O/U 52.5
Nevada vs. North Dakota State
Nevada 2-3 (1-1), North Dakota State 5-1 (2-1)
North Dakota State looks to get back on track Saturday after suffering its first loss of the season, a 13–7 defeat against UNLV. The Bison will return home to the Fargodome looking to respond, and quarterback Nathan Hayes will be a key player to watch after throwing three interceptions last week. Hayes will need to take better care of the football, while wide receiver Jackson Williams could be due for a bigger role after averaging 16.3 yards per catch but recording just one reception against UNLV.
Nevada enters the matchup looking to build on its recent momentum, but the Wolf Pack will face a tough challenge on the road. Kicker Joe McFadden has been perfect this season, converting all nine field-goal attempts and all 16 extra points. If Nevada can keep the game close, McFadden’s reliability could become a major factor in the outcome.
NDSU should have the advantage at home and will be motivated to prove last week’s loss was only a bump in the road. If Hayes limits mistakes and the Bison get Williams more involved in the passing game, expect them to respond with a convincing win.
Bot spread North Dakota State −13.2Bot O/U 45.1
San José State vs. UTEP
San José State 3-3 (1-1), UTEP 1-5 (0-2)
San José State heads to El Paso looking to get back on track and pick up a road win against UTEP. Quarterback Luke Weaver has thrown for 1,529 yards and 11 touchdowns, while running back Jabari Bates has been a productive part of the offense with 556 rushing yards on 120 carries. Receiver Carson Clark has also been a reliable target, recording 405 receiving yards and four touchdowns. The Spartans have enough production on offense to put together scoring drives, but they’ll need to avoid mistakes and take advantage of their opportunities. On defense, Jayland McGlothen has recorded 19 tackles, three tackles for loss, and two sacks. If the Spartans can get pressure on UTEP and make the Miners uncomfortable, they’ll have a good chance to control the game.
UTEP has struggled to find consistency this season, but the Miners still have players who can make things interesting. Quarterback EJ Colson has thrown for 541 yards and seven touchdowns with three interceptions, while Raymond Moore III has added 359 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Receiver Carver Cheeks has recorded 179 receiving yards and three touchdowns, giving Colson a target to look for when the Miners need a big play. Defensive end Sterling Miles has also recorded two sacks and two tackles for loss, and UTEP will need him to help disrupt San José State’s offense. We think this game will be closer than the records might suggest, especially with UTEP playing at home, but the Spartans have a better combination of offensive production and defensive playmaking. We expect San José State to lean on Bates, let Weaver make plays when needed, and do enough defensively to leave El Paso with a win.
Bot spread San José State −4.7Bot O/U 49.7
Ohio vs. Sacramento State
Ohio 4-2 (2-0), Sacramento State 1-5 (0-3)
Sacramento State is having a rough go of it in its first season at the FBS level, and that test will continue when the Hornets host the Ohio Bobcats on Saturday.
This is the first-ever meeting between the two programs. Ohio comes in 4-2 with a 2-0 conference record, while Sacramento State sits at 1-5 and 0-3 in conference play.
The Hornets are led by quarterback Jackson Sharman, playing in his first year as a starter. Sharman has thrown for 1,001 yards and six touchdowns through the first six games of the season. San José State transfer Matt Coleman has been the brightest spot on the offense for the Hornets, already exceeding his career totals in yards and touchdowns with 454 and four.
The Bobcats are seeking to be 3-0 in conference play for the first time since the 2012 season and bring in a well-rounded team that has seen a plethora of contributors. Quarterback Nick Polous returned from injury last week against Central Michigan to throw three first-half touchdown passes in a 31-14 blowout win. Receiver Riley Neer leads the team in touchdowns with five through six games this season.
The Bot likes the Bobcats in this matchup, and we do too. Sacramento State is having a rough adjustment to the FBS, and we believe it will continue in this home matchup against the Bobcats.
Bot spread Ohio −14.4Bot O/U 51.1
Fresno State vs. San Diego State
Fresno State 4-2 (1-1), San Diego State 2-4 (1-1)
Fresno State and San Diego State are former Mountain West rivals trending in opposite directions in their first year in the all-new Pac-12.
Fresno State just went toe-to-toe with the Pac-12’s best in Boise State, losing a narrow shootout 38-31. San Diego State, on the other hand, is reeling after a 66-14 blowout loss to Oregon State in Corvallis.
The Bulldogs bring in a strong passing attack, with quarterback Jayden Mandal throwing for 1,252 yards and eight touchdowns in his first significant playing time, and receivers Josiah Freeman and Ezekiel Avit combining for 726 yards and six touchdowns.
Fresno is also seeing significant contributions on the defensive side of the ball, with cornerback Simeon Harris recording three interceptions and defensive lineman Dylan Hampsten leading the way with three sacks.
The Aztecs are currently nursing over 30 players on their injury report, with 14 of them recovering from an outbreak of the mumps.
Quarterback Jayden Denegal leads the San Diego State offense. He was limited to just 78 yards on 5-of-19 passing last week against Oregon State, however.
Our models see this being a competitive game. Even with the Aztecs getting healthier, we think the Bulldogs will be able to pull this one off and reach 2-1 in Pac-12 play.
Bot spread Fresno State −6.8Bot O/U 47.1
New Mexico vs. Hawai‘i
New Mexico 4-1 (1-0), Hawai‘i 1-5 (0-3)
New Mexico heads to Honolulu looking to build on its strong 4–1 start after opening Mountain West play with a dominant 61–7 win over UTEP. The Lobos will look to keep their offense rolling, with wide receiver Bailen George and tight end Cade Keith expected to play key roles in the passing game as New Mexico looks to find success through the air.
Hawai‘i quarterback Micah Alejado has thrown for more than 1,600 yards this season, but the Rainbow Warriors have struggled to turn that production into points. Alejado and the Hawai‘i offense will need to finish drives and capitalize on scoring opportunities to keep pace with a New Mexico team averaging more than 40 points per game.
The trip to the islands presents a challenge, but New Mexico has the offensive firepower to come away with a convincing road win. Hawai‘i will need a much more efficient offensive performance to pull off the upset.
Bot spread New Mexico −19.0Bot O/U 53.3
The Bot’s picks, spreads and over/unders come from the Elevation Change prediction model, which rates every team from game data and never reads betting lines. They are not sportsbook odds, and none of this is betting advice.