Well, The Boys were outdone this week.
The Bot took a big win, beating The Boys 6-3 in last week’s picks. While most of the games were close, the Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming matchup was a particularly dominant win for the Bot, beating our projected score by a whopping 14 points.
Nonetheless, we press forward.
The Bot has tightened the race, but the Boys are still leading after three editions of The Boys vs. The Bot.
Let’s see if The Boys can build their lead back up in Week 8’s picks.
On bye: Oregon State, UNLV, Fresno State, UTEP
New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston
New Mexico State 2-4 (1-1), Sam Houston 1-5 (0-2)
New Mexico State takes on Sam Houston in a Conference USA matchup between two teams looking to turn their seasons around. The Aggies enter at 2-4 overall and 1-1 in conference play, while the Bearkats are 1-5 and still searching for their first conference win. Neither team has been particularly consistent, but New Mexico State has a chance to take advantage of a struggling Sam Houston squad.
Both teams have had trouble generating points, making offensive execution a major factor in this game. New Mexico State will need to improve its ability to sustain drives and finish scoring opportunities, while Sam Houston must find a way to get its offense moving after several disappointing performances. The team that makes fewer mistakes and takes advantage of its opportunities should have the upper hand.
We give New Mexico State the edge because Sam Houston’s offensive struggles have been difficult to overlook. The Boys are predicting a comfortable Aggies victory, while the Bot expects a much closer contest. We think New Mexico State will find enough offense to win without allowing Sam Houston to make things interesting late.
Bot spread New Mexico State −0.4Bot O/U 46.6
Air Force vs. Wyoming
Air Force 5-1 (3-1), Wyoming 4-3 (3-1)
Air Force and Wyoming are set to face off in a Mountain West matchup, with the Falcons looking to take control early. Air Force’s versatile offense could present some serious challenges for the Cowboys, especially if Wyoming struggles to contain the triple-option.
For Air Force, quarterback Liam Szarka is the player to watch. Leading the Falcons in both passing and rushing yards, Szarka has been the driving force behind their offense. His ability to make plays with both his arm and his legs gives Wyoming plenty to prepare for.
Wyoming safety Jones Thomas will be tasked with helping slow down the Falcons. Thomas leads the Cowboys with 50 tackles and two interceptions, making him one of their most reliable defenders. However, Air Force’s offensive versatility could prove too much for Wyoming to handle. We’re taking the Falcons to win this one comfortably.
Bot spread Air Force −6.5Bot O/U 48.2
Hawai‘i vs. Northern Illinois
Hawai‘i 1-6 (0-4), Northern Illinois 0-6 (0-2)
Hawai‘i and Northern Illinois meet in a matchup between two teams desperate for a win. Hawai‘i enters at 1-6, while Northern Illinois is still searching for its first victory at 0-6. Both teams have struggled offensively and defensively this season, making this a great opportunity for one side to finally build some momentum.
Hawai‘i has shown some potential through the air but has struggled to turn its offensive production into wins. Northern Illinois, meanwhile, has given up too many points and needs a stronger defensive performance to protect its home field. With both teams looking for answers, turnovers and red-zone efficiency could ultimately decide this matchup.
We expect Hawai‘i to have a slight advantage if its offense can find consistency and take advantage of Northern Illinois’ defensive struggles. The Huskies will have the home-field advantage, but we think the Rainbow Warriors will do enough to earn their second win of the season.
Bot spread Hawai‘i −0.2Bot O/U 47.2
Sacramento State vs. Ball State
Sacramento State 1-6 (0-4), Ball State 2-5 (1-2)
Ladies and gentlemen, this is the matchup you’ve all been waiting for: the Ball-Sac Bowl.
Sacramento State makes the 1,912-mile trip across the country to take on Ball State in a battle of MAC nether-dwellers. The Hornets are at the very bottom of nearly every FBS statistic in their first season at the FBS level, but they’ll hope to iron out the wrinkles against an only slightly better Ball State squad.
It’s been a fairly blue season so far for the Cardinals, but they scored a ballsy 2-point try in overtime to secure their first conference and FBS win of the season in a 32-31 victory over Bowling Green.
Both the Hornets and the Cardinals have struggled to make adjustments most of the season. Both teams have regularly found themselves in ESPN’s Bottom 10 list this season, so a victory for either squad would create loads of positive momentum.
Sacramento State hasn’t scored more than 10 points in a game since its Week 2 victory over FCS Mississippi Valley State. It’ll be hard-pressed for them to bust out more than two scores, even against a lowly Ball State team.
Both The Boys and The Bot think that this game will end in a blowout. Perhaps the winner of this game will gain a sponsorship deal with Manscaped or Fruit of the Loom; I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
Bot spread Ball State −12.8Bot O/U 53
San José State vs. Nevada
San José State 4-3 (2-1), Nevada 2-4 (1-2)
San José State travels to Reno to face Nevada in a Mountain West matchup between two teams heading in different directions. The Spartans enter at 4-3 overall and 2-1 in conference play, while Nevada sits at 2-4 and 1-2. San José State has been the more consistent team so far, but playing on the road against Nevada could make this a challenging matchup.
The Spartans will look to build on their defensive success, especially their ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks and disrupt offensive drives. Nevada needs to take care of the football and establish its offense early to avoid letting San José State control the game. If the Wolf Pack can use their home-field advantage and limit mistakes, they have a chance to pull off the win.
We expect Nevada to make this a competitive game, but San José State has shown more consistency throughout the season. Our prediction is slightly closer than the Bot’s, with the Wolf Pack finding just enough offense to win at home in a game that could come down to the final possession.
Bot spread Nevada −7.5Bot O/U 47.9
Boise State vs. Washington State
Boise State 5-1 (2-0), Washington State 1-6 (0-3)
Boise State and Washington State meet in a matchup where the Broncos will look to establish their running game and control the tempo. Washington State has some dangerous offensive weapons, but Boise State has an opportunity to take command if it can consistently move the ball on the ground. Boise State also controls their destiny of making their second appearance in the 12-team playoff.
Running back Dylan Riley will be a key player for Boise State in this game. With 835 rushing yards this season, Riley has been a major part of the Broncos’ offense. If he can continue producing at that level, Boise State should be able to sustain drives and keep pressure on the Cougars’ defense.
For Washington State, wide receiver Branden Ganashamoorthy is someone to keep an eye on. He leads the Cougars in both receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, making him a significant threat in the passing game. However, we’re expecting Boise State’s rushing attack to set the tone and help the Broncos pull away for a convincing victory.
Bot spread Boise State −12.2Bot O/U 53.6
San Diego State vs. Colorado State
San Diego State 3-4 (2-1), Colorado State 2-4 (0-2)
San Diego State has been a victim of facing teams at their strongest this season. Of their four losses this season, the teams they lost to have a combined 23-4 record, including two teams, UCLA and James Madison, who have yet to lose a game this season. Despite that, the Aztecs have navigated an insane amount of injuries and a team mumps outbreak to sit tied for third in the Pac-12 with four games to go.
The Aztecs lost quarterback Jayden Denegal to an ankle injury in the first half of their win against Fresno State, but backup freshman Stone Saunders filled in admirably, going 6-of-11 passing for 61 yards and leading the Aztecs to kick the game-winning field goal.
Colorado State has had a good offense this season, but its defense ranks dead last in yards and points given up per game. The Rams have already fired their defensive coordinator this season, midway through their loss against Oregon State, but it seems the change in leadership did not lead to much change as they proceeded to give up 716 total yards against Texas State, who now sit as the best offense across the FBS in yards per game.
The Boys and The Bot think that this will be a close, high-scoring game. Both teams have been wildly inconsistent this season, but give us the Aztecs on the road as the slightest of favorites.
Bot spread San Diego State −0.5Bot O/U 59.8
Utah State vs. Texas State
Utah State 2-4 (1-1), Texas State 3-3 (1-1)
Utah State will have its hands full against a Texas State offense that has plenty of weapons at its disposal. The Bobcats have the ability to attack defenses in multiple ways, and the Aggies will need a strong defensive performance to keep this game competitive.
For Utah State, safety Brevin Hamblin will be an important player to watch. Hamblin has recorded 50 tackles and an interception this season, establishing himself as a key contributor to the Aggies’ defense. His ability to make plays in the secondary will be tested against Texas State’s talented offensive lineup.
The Bobcats feature an explosive trio in quarterback Brad Jackson, running back Torrance Burgess Jr., and wide receiver Chris Dawn Jr. With threats in both the passing and rushing attacks, Texas State has the weapons to make life difficult for Utah State’s defense. We’re expecting the Bobcats to put up plenty of points and come away with a comfortable victory.
Bot spread Texas State −10.9Bot O/U 56.9
North Dakota State vs. New Mexico
North Dakota State 6-1 (3-1), New Mexico 5-1 (2-0)
In our Elevation Change Game of the Week, North Dakota State and New Mexico face off in the battle of the top Mountain West contenders and a potential step towards the G6’s automatic playoff bid.
The Lobos are coming off a disappointing performance at Hawai‘i, scoring only 21 points, all in the second half, their second-lowest of the season. Despite the underwhelming performance, they were able to still put up 243 yards on the ground, their third-best performance of the season. Scottre Humphrey led the way with 90 yards and two touchdowns, while quarterback Toa Fa’avae added 77 yards and a touchdown.
Interestingly, the Lobos and Bison sit as the number one and number two teams in the entire country in points allowed per game this season, at 10.5 and 11.3, respectively. Both teams have been dominant on the defensive front, and the battle over which defense will prevail will be a key factor in deciding this game.
North Dakota State is coming off a closer game than they were expecting against a pesky Nevada squad. The Bison needed the efforts of their special teams to secure the victory, scoring both a 100-yard missed field goal return touchdown and a defensive two-point conversion against the Wolfpack.
Despite both teams’ defense being the stars of the show, we think this will come down to which offense can get the last push. We’re going to lean toward the home Lobos in this matchup that could determine the Mountain West title.
Bot spread New Mexico −7.3Bot O/U 46.5
The Bot’s picks, spreads and over/unders come from the Elevation Change prediction model, which rates every team from game data and never reads betting lines. They are not sportsbook odds, and none of this is betting advice.