The Bot has been killing us lately.
A 2-7 record for The Boys this weekend was not what we envisioned, and it wasn’t particularly close.
After trailing the entire season, The Bot has taken the lead 20-18. Of its seven wins this week, it was closer to the final score by more than ten points than The Boys’ guesses in four of them.
Facing our first deficit of the season, we went against The Bot more than we have all season in our effort to get back into the winning column.
Let’s look at what’s on this week’s docket.
On bye: Hawai‘i, Wyoming
Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State
Jacksonville State 5-2 (3-0), New Mexico State 3-4 (2-1)
New Mexico State hosts Jacksonville State in a chance for the Aggies to reach the top of the CUSA standings.
The Aggies are coming off a win in Huntsville, Texas at Sam Houston that saw senior running back James Jones set a career high for rushing yards in a single game with 178. Additionally, second-string-turned-starter Adam Damante had one of his best games this season, throwing for 160 yards and two touchdowns.
The Aggies are now 2-1 in CUSA play, tied for second in the conference. Jacksonville State is tied for first alongside Liberty with an undefeated 3-0 record. New Mexico State has played well at home this season, sitting with a 2-1 record with their only loss coming in Week 4 against in-state rival New Mexico.
The Bot sees this as a very close game, with the Gamecocks favored by the slightest of margins. We think that the win will be by a few more points, but we agree with The Bot that Jacksonville State will continue their undefeated conference streak with a gritty win in Las Cruces.
Bot spread Jacksonville State −1.2Bot O/U 53.2
Kent State vs. Sacramento State
Kent State 3-5 (2-2), Sacramento State 1-7 (0-5)
Kent State comes into this matchup at 3-5, but a win over Sacramento State could be exactly what the Golden Flashes need to get some momentum going. Quarterback Dru DeShields will be important to that effort after showing he can move the ball through the air, while running back Brandon White gives Kent State another option to keep the offense balanced. Sacramento State has struggled at 1-7, but wide receivers Matt Coleman and Onterrio Smith Jr. could give the Hornets a chance to make some plays if quarterback Jackson Sharman can get them the ball. The big question is whether Sacramento State can put together enough consistent drives to keep up.
Defensively, Kent State needs to do a better job of limiting scoring opportunities after allowing 30.5 points per game. Sacramento State has its own problems on that side of the ball, and giving DeShields time to throw could make for a long afternoon. The Hornets need to create turnovers and take advantage of any mistakes if they want to pull off the upset. Kent State is favored by 6.1 points, and while I think Sacramento State can make a few plays, the Golden Flashes should have enough to get the win.
Bot spread Kent State −6.1Bot O/U 48.5
UConn vs. Air Force
UConn 4-3 (0-0), Air Force 5-2 (3-2)
UConn travels to Colorado Springs with a dangerous offensive duo in quarterback Kalieb Osborne and running back Cyncir Bowers. The Huskies will look to lean on these two playmakers to keep the Air Force defense on its heels. However, standing in their way is Falcons linebacker Blake Fletcher, who has been an absolute tackling machine this season. Fletcher has recorded an impressive 72 tackles, a whopping 28 more than the next closest player on the team, linebacker Dallas Daley, who has 44.
If Air Force wants to come away with a victory, Fletcher will need to be all over the field once again to slow down UConn’s offensive attack. This matchup has all the makings of a back-and-forth battle, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes down to the final possession. Ultimately, I think the Falcons will find a way to make just enough plays to escape with a narrow victory in front of their home crowd after suffering a tough road loss to Wyoming last week.
Bot spread Air Force −2.9Bot O/U 55.9
Colorado State vs. Utah State
Colorado State 3-4 (1-2), Utah State 2-5 (1-2)
Colorado State’s defense is still the worst in football, but they finally snapped a four-game losing streak with a 56-49 shootout victory against San Diego State on Saturday.
The return of starter Hauss Hejny was enough for the Rams to overcome an onslaught of vicious Aztec attacks. The sophomore finished the day with five combined touchdowns and over 400 total yards.
The Rams-Aztecs matchup finished with 1,114 yards of offense, only the third most in a Rams game this season. The Aztecs’ 565 yards of offense was also the third most given up this year. The Aztecs only average 326.9 yards a game, so seeing nearly 250 more yards against the Rams was typical for what the Rams defense gives to opposing offenses.
Utah State is the 11th worst offense in football this season with only 306.4 yards per game. They should be able to put up nearly double that against a porous Colorado State defense. Look for a big game for Grady Brosterhous, who leads the team in passing with 1,120 yards and is second in rushing with 270.
The Bot thinks that the Aggies will be able to pull off the win in Logan. However, with the Rams’ performance with their starting quarterback back, The Boys think that the Rams will overwhelm the Aggies in a very close, high scoring affair.
Bot spread Utah State −6.7Bot O/U 61
UTEP vs. North Dakota State
UTEP 1-6 (0-3), North Dakota State 6-2 (3-2)
UTEP has had a rough season at 1-6, and traveling to face a 6-2 North Dakota State team isn’t exactly the easiest way to turn things around. The Miners need quarterback Raymond Moore III to make plays with both his arm and his legs, while running back Kam Thomas will have to help keep the offense moving. Unfortunately for UTEP, the Bison have allowed just 12.5 points per game, making it difficult for opposing offenses to find much breathing room. North Dakota State has the advantage in the trenches and should be able to make UTEP work for every first down.
The Bison also have the offensive firepower to take advantage of UTEP’s defensive struggles. North Dakota State quarterback Nathan Hayes can lead the passing game, while running back Myles Mitchell gives the Bison a way to control the clock and wear down the defense. UTEP has allowed more than 37 points per game, so the Miners cannot afford to give away possessions or let North Dakota State build an early lead. The 24.6-point spread is a big number, but the matchup suggests the Bison could cover it if they execute. UTEP needs a near-perfect performance to stay competitive, and I don’t see that happening on the road.
Bot spread North Dakota State −24.6Bot O/U 47.5
New Mexico vs. San José State
New Mexico 6-1 (3-0), San José State 4-4 (2-2)
New Mexico has been one of the surprises of the season, entering this game at 6-1 and 3-0 in conference play. The Lobos have a balanced offense led by quarterback Toa Fa’avae, with Scottre Humphrey and Kiefer Sibley providing options in the running game. San José State is 4-4 and has enough talent to make this competitive, especially with quarterback Luke Weaver leading the offense and receiver Carson Clark giving the Spartans a downfield threat. Still, New Mexico’s defense has been a major strength, and the Spartans will need to be efficient with their opportunities if they want to keep pace.
The biggest matchup here is San José State’s offense against a New Mexico defense that has done a great job limiting opponents. The Spartans need running back Jabari Bates to help take pressure off Weaver, while their defense must find a way to slow down the Lobos’ ground game. If New Mexico can control possession and avoid turnovers, it should be able to dictate the pace of the game. The Boys are predicting a 16-point win, while the Bot expects a slightly higher-scoring game. I like New Mexico to keep rolling, but San José State should be able to put a few points on the board.
Bot spread New Mexico −15.4Bot O/U 48.4
Nevada vs. UCLA
Nevada 3-4 (2-2), UCLA 7-0 (5-0)
UCLA enters the Game of the Week undefeated at 7-0, while Nevada sits at 3-4 and needs a big performance to have any chance of pulling off the upset. The Bruins have been strong on both sides of the ball, and running back Wayne Knight has been a major part of their success with 12 rushing touchdowns. Nevada will need Dominic Kelley and Herschel Turner to establish the ground game and keep UCLA’s offense on the sideline, while quarterback Carter Jones needs to take advantage of opportunities through the air. Receiver Gary Givens III could be a key target, but Nevada will have a tough time keeping up if the Bruins jump out to an early lead.
UCLA’s defense is the biggest reason this matchup looks so difficult for Nevada. Linebackers Jalen Woods and Sammy Omosigho can disrupt plays, and the Bruins have been particularly effective against the run. Nevada’s defense will have to find a way to contain Knight while forcing UCLA into passing situations, but that is easier said than done against an undefeated team. The Boys are giving Nevada a little more credit than the Bot, predicting a 34-16 UCLA win compared with the Bot’s 40-11 blowout. I think Nevada can make this interesting early, but UCLA has too many ways to win, and the Bruins should remain undefeated.
Bot spread UCLA −28.1Bot O/U 50.9
Washington State vs. San Diego State
Washington State 1-7 (0-4), San Diego State 3-5 (2-2)
Washington State might need its defense to put some points on the board if the Cougars want to leave San Diego with a victory. Safeties Jaylen Thomas and Jackquintin Bal have each recorded a pick-six this season, showing just how dangerous this secondary can be when given the opportunity to make a big play. If the Cougars can force turnovers and capitalize on San Diego State’s mistakes, they’ll have a chance to keep this matchup competitive.
On the other side, San Diego State has a potential difference-maker in kicker Cooper DiLeva, who has been outstanding this season. DiLeva is a perfect 21-for-21 on extra points and has converted 10 of his 11 field goal attempts, including a career-long 53-yarder. In a game where points could be hard to come by, having a reliable kicker could prove extremely valuable. I expect the Aztecs to control this matchup, with DiLeva helping San Diego State secure another victory.
Bot spread Washington State −0.3Bot O/U 47.1
Texas State vs. Boise State
Texas State 4-3 (2-1), Boise State 6-1 (3-0)
Texas State running back Torrance Burgess Jr. was limited to just 10 carries last week against Utah State. If the Bobcats want to pull off the upset in Boise, they’ll need to get their star running back more involved. However, that won’t be easy against a Boise State defense that has already recorded 18 sacks this season. Linebacker Jayden Virgin-Morgan and defensive lineman Lopez Sanusi lead the Broncos with three sacks apiece.
The biggest question in this matchup is whether Boise State can consistently pressure Texas State quarterback Brad Jackson and force him into costly mistakes. If the Broncos can disrupt the Bobcats’ offense and limit Burgess Jr. on the ground, they’ll be in a great position to defend their home turf and continue to control their own destiny in pursuit of the College Football Playoff. We expect Boise State’s defense to make the difference and help the Broncos secure a comfortable victory on the blue turf.
Bot spread Boise State −10.9Bot O/U 61.5
Northern Illinois vs. UNLV
Northern Illinois 0-7 (0-3), UNLV 4-2 (2-1)
UNLV returns home after its first conference loss at Air Force two weeks ago. The Rebels had been on a three game win streak, but the Falcons’ sheer rushing attack was too much for them to handle.
Now the Rebels get to face the Northern Illinois Huskies, one of the worst teams in college football this season.
UNLV is led by quarterback Jackson Arnold, who’s had a career resurgence after back-to-back middling years at Oklahoma and Auburn. Arnold’s 6 rushing touchdowns are tied for seventh amongst G6 quarterbacks and his 16 total touchdowns are among the G6 leaders.
Northern Illinois got a big game from receiver DeAree Rogers in their loss against Hawaii last week, with 115 yards and two touchdowns on eight receptions, but no other Husky was able to produce more than 63 yards of offense aside from quarterback Taron Dickens.
The Huskies are standing at 0-7 overall and an 0-3 conference record in their first season as a member of the Mountain West. They are the last winless team in the FBS ranks after Louisiana-Monroe and Charlotte were able to pick up their first wins of the season last week.
Northern Illinois hasn’t played in a one-possession game since their Week 2 loss against now FCS No. 9 Illinois State 28-24. The Bot and The Boys don’t think this week will be any different, with a 3+ score win all but assured for UNLV barring the impossible from happening.
Bot spread UNLV −20Bot O/U 53.6
Oregon State vs. Fresno State
Oregon State 5-2 (3-0), Fresno State 4-3 (1-2)
Despite being on bye last week, Oregon State quarterback Brady Atkinson and receiver Jesse Legree are still in first place for yards thrown, yards caught, and touchdowns caught through eight weeks of the college football season.
Oregon State is on an absolute heater, winning five straight games by three scores or more after two close season-opening losses to ranked schools Houston and Texas Tech.
The Beavers are also getting noticed more by the national pundits, being the fourth team out in the AP Top 25 rankings this week. They also made national headlines with Legree re-signing for another season, foregoing the opportunity to potentially play in the Power 4 next year.
Fresno State is also coming off of a bye week, but it’s been a rough go for the Bulldogs after a solid start to the season.
After starting 4-1, close losses to Boise State and San Diego State have dropped their season record to 4-3 and conference record to 1-2. The Bulldogs will need to have more consistency at their key positions if they’re wanting to get a statement win against the Beavers.
The Boys and The Bot both think that Oregon State will prevail in their road trip to Fresno, however, The Bot is projecting a closer game than we are. It should be another good week for the Beavers, as the Bulldogs won’t have enough bite to stop them.
Bot spread Oregon State −9.2Bot O/U 56.4